Today: Mar 31 , 2020

Unsettled, Uncertain Weather This Week
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10 February 2020   Dr. Mark Sinclair, Ph.D.

The weather has a built-in uncertainty this week, according to science.

An unsettled start to the work week in store, with a low traversing the state later today and Tuesday and some weaker disturbances expected over the weekend. Forecast confidence is low with these weather systems so check the NWS for updates.

Forecast table

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/wxtables/

Navigate on the map to your location and click.

Weather Forecast:

Scattered showers will develop this afternoon with isolated thunderstorms a possibility. Overnight, more widespread precipitation will occur starting this evening, easing tomorrow morning. Rain will turn to snow in most places above 4500 ft after 3am, with trace to about 1-2 inch total snow accumulation expected, depending on elevation (check the forecast table above for your location). High-resolution forecast models are currently showing precipitation totals (see here) with this storm ranging from 0.2-0.4 inches in northern and western areas of the quad-cities region, to over 0.4 inches to our south and southeast and on east-facing slopes, including the I-17 corridor near and south of Cordes. Snow showers should taper off after noon tomorrow. Wednesday to Friday will be sunny and dry, with highs in the 50s, but with chance precipitation returning for the weekend.

Additional notes for the weather nuts out there:

Forecast confidence for this system is lower than normal due to uncertainty in the track of the low. This is not something weather forecasters say to cover their rear ends, but is based on science. Multiple runs for forecast models that differ slightly in initial conditions are used to assess forecast uncertainty. These multiple runs are called ensembles. Where ensemble members agree and cluster around a particular solution, we have higher confidence in that forecast. However, when there is wide disparity between ensemble members, forecast confidence is low. Ensemble forecasting can also be used to assess the probability of, say, precipitation. If, for example, 15 out of 22 ensemble member forecast precipitation for a location, forecasters would predict a 15/22 or ~70% probability of precipitation.

Ensemble products are found at https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/SREF.html

Mark

Mark Sinclair, Ph.D.
Program Chair and Professor, Meteorology
Department of Applied Aviation Sciences, College of Aviation


Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

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